NFL Free Pick | Bengals @ Dolphins

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by Americas Bookie - 12/2/2020 7:26 PM Share

Head coach Brian Flores has done a wonderful job of rebuilding the Miami Dolphins into a winner. The Dolphins are 7-4 and still have a chance to capture the AFC East title. They trail 8-3 Buffalo by just a game and the two meet once more this season.

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This week though, the Dolphins take on the 2-8-1 Cincinnati Bengals and they will probably do so without QB Tua Tagovailoa. That's okay. Backup Ryan Fitzpatrick is the reason why sports bettors can feel confident in Miami.

Game: Cincinnati Bengals (2-8-1, 7-3-1 ATS) at Miami Dolphins (7-4, 8-3 ATS)

When : 1:00 PM ET, Sunday, December 6, 2020

Where : Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Florida

Current Line : MIA -10

Total : 42

TV Coverage : CBS

Going to Miami

An upset loss at Denver is the only blemish on Miami's record in its last seven games. The defense has been absolutely outstanding giving up just 15.5 points per in those last seven outings. Last week, Miami's defense held the hapless Jets to just a field goal.

The big question heading into Sunday's game with the Bengals is the status of Tagovailoa. The rookie, who is 3-1 as a starter, is questionable due to a thumb injury. If Fitzpatrick does start, bettors have even more reason to back the Dolphins despite the double-digit spread.

If you go back to Week 13 of the 2019 season, you will see that the Dolphins with Fitzpatrick as the quarterback are a solid 9-3 ATS. Fitzpatrick went 4-3 as the starter this starter before giving way to Tagovailoa after the Dolphins bye week. He has thrown for 1,909 yards and 12 touchdowns on the season.

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Even if Tagovailoa does indeed start, there are still plenty of reasons to back Miami against the spread. One reason is Flores. Consider what he has done in his two short seasons with the Dolphins. His teams are 17-10 ATS and even better if you take out the first month of his inaugural season.

A Tale of Two Teams

Last year, the Dolphins started the season 0-7 overall. In the first month of the season, they were blown out in four games by a combined score of 163-26. Needless to say, Miami didn't cover a spread until after their bye week in 2019. If you take out those four games, Flores' Dolphins are 17-6 ATS.

The Bengals have actually been respectable most of the season despite their awful record. They only have two wins, but Cincy has covered the spread in seven games this season. Now, the issue that Cincinnati has going into Miami is the loss of rookie Joe Burrow at quarterback.

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No More Joe

Burrow was outstanding and likely headed to a Rookie of the Year award before tearing an ACL. Brandon Allen will start again in Burrow's place. Last week, Allen threw for just 136 yards in a loss to the New York Giants.

The other issue is the Bengals defense. It ranks near the bottom of the NFL in most statistical categories including yards given up per play and total yards allowed. The Bengals have been very susceptible to the run where they give up an average of 4.8 yards per carry and the third-most rushing yards.

Miami is 9-1 SU in its last 10 home games when playing as the favorite and they are 6-1 ATS in their last seven at home.

NFL Free Pick: DOLPHINS -10

Need more free picks for NFL Week 13? Check out 2020 NFL Week 13 best bets .


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