30 April, 2023
When it comes to wagering on baseball, the idea is to ride a team when they get hot and jump off as soon as they cool off. Baseball betting is about streaks because it involves picking a team to win straight up. Oftentimes baseball teams will win and lose on a streaky basis, probably because they play 162 regular season games. There is no streakier sport on planet Earth than MLB baseball.
Finding a profitable team to ride is key to turning a profit. In recent years the New York Yankees have been the key team to ride when it comes to turning a profit. Even though they are favored in most games, sometimes by 2-to-1 odds or more, they still come up on top at the end of the season.
For the sake of this conversation let’s say one unit equals $100. Last year the Yankees ended up +11.9 units at the end of the season. This means that if you bet the Yankees to win $100 in each and every game you would end up $1,200 to the good at the end of the season. But if you are good at picking your spots and know when to jump on and when to jump off the Yankees train then you could pocket even more money than that.
Last season the top team overall was the Baltimore Orioles when it comes to being the most profitable. They ended the season +17.6 units. This is because they were not expected to be very good at the beginning of the season and handicappers still had them rated low well into the regular season. They finished with a winning record of 83-79.
The New York Mets were number two overall with a positive 12.1 units. The Mets are always a conundrum and are a hard team to back. You never know what you’re really going to get from year to year.
The New York Yankees finished number three overall as mentioned above with plus 11.9 units. Couple this information with the above paragraph and if you bet the Yankees and the Mets and every single game this season to win $100 you finished plus 23 units.
So far this season the Tampa Bay Rays are 23-5 overall. They started the season with a 13 game win streak. If you somehow decided to ride them from the start of the season your bankroll would be sitting very pretty right now. And if you jumped off when they lost game #14 your bankroll would be no different than if you kept on riding them.
In conclusion, the secret to betting baseball is to find Value and to ride streaks. It’s not always about betting the favorite. It’s about finding favorites at great money line prices and betting dogs when you think they will win straight up. If you see a team that’s heating up and think they may win the next three or four games jump on board. When they lose one game it’s time to jump back off.