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Thursday Free Pick – Toronto vs San Diego

20 July, 2023

On Thursday at Rogers Centre, the Toronto Blue Jays (53-42) will play the San Diego Padres (45-50). San Diego is at +105 on the moneyline for this match, while Toronto is at -125. There is a nine-point over/under. Blake Snell and Chris Bassitt are anticipated to make their debuts as starters.

The Padres have together hit 121 home runs as well as 168 doubles. San Diego has a slugging percentage of.408 and has been struck out 806 times while getting 399 walks. The San Diego Padres are producing 4.6 runs per game as a team, which places them 15th in MLB. They currently have a batting average of.235, 412 RBIs, and 738 base hits for the season. Their team OBP is.324, and they have 432 runs.

Their pitching staff has a collective WHIP of 1.25 and a strikeout to walk ratio of 2.66. Pitchers for the Padres have allowed 388 runs overall and 104 home runs, which ranks fourth in the league. San Diego has allowed 358 earned runs and 749 base hits (8.0 per nine innings). The Padres’ staff has struck out 828 hitters so far this season, and their team earned run average is currently 3.81, placing them sixth in the league. Their pitching staff has struck out 311 opposing players, and their collective FIP for the season is 4.20.

Over the course of the season, the Padres have sent 302 relievers to the hill. 35.7% of the 115 base runners that the bullpen relievers have inherited this season have reached home plate. They’ve made 24 saves so far this year and missed 20 of their 44 chances to make saves. The Padres’ relievers have appeared on the mound in 97 save opportunities and have a cumulative save percentage of 54.5%. The relievers are 11th in MLB with 53 holds so far this year. Pitchers in the Padres bullpen have faced high leverage situations 97 times and have entered games with runners on base 74 times.

There have been 861 assists, 38 errors, and a total of 2,536 putouts for the San Diego Padres so far. They now have an MLB third-place fielding percentage of.989 and 83 double plays. In their 7,608 innings played on the field, the Padres have converted 70.4% of balls hit into play into outs, placing them fifth in the majors.

In his MLB career, Snell has thrown 915 innings and struck out 1,128 batters. Snell (63-53 career record) has faced 3,806 opposing hitters in the major leagues and currently has a FIP of 3.46. His career WHIP is 1.243, and his ERA is 3.33 (339 earned runs allowed). He has 404 free passes and 734 base hits surrendered (7.2 hits per nine innings).

Toronto has 105 home runs and 407 RBIs so far this season. They’ve registered 175 doubles, 299 free bases, 430 runs scored, and 175 doubles. The Toronto Blue Jays have a batting average of.261 and a team on-base percentage of.328 for the season. The Blue Jays are scoring 4.53 runs per game, which ranks them 16th in the league and has an SLG% of.417. They have registered 852 base hits overall but have also been struck out 753 times (25th in MLB).

The Blue Jays’ team WHIP is 1.251 and their FIP is 4.19 for the current season. With 774 total hits allowed, their pitching staff ranks 13th in the league. The Toronto pitching staff has allowed 394 runs while posting a 3.87 team ERA (363 earned runs yielded) for the season. They have a 9.50 K/BB ratio (897 strikeouts vs. 283 walks). They rank sixth in MLB in terms of runs allowed per nine innings (4.20) and have given up 122 home runs.

The Blue Jays now have 98 save opportunities, 56 holds, and 9 missed saves. In 42 save situations, Toronto has relied on relievers to enter the game, and they have racked up 33 saves. Their relief pitchers have entered the game 103 times with runners on base and 99 times in high leverage situations. Out of the 146 inherited base runners, Toronto’s relievers have scored 21.9% of them. They have sent 316 bullpen pitchers into the field this season and are ranked first in baseball with a save percentage of 78.6%.

The Blue Jays rank 14th in MLB with a defensive efficiency of 69.2% throughout their 7,611 innings played on the field. The Toronto Blue Jays have recorded 74 double plays and are now ranked 18th in MLB in terms of fielding percentage (.986). This season, the Blue Jays had 2,537 putouts, 751 assists, 48 errors, and a total of 48.

In 853 innings throughout the course of his career, Bassitt has struck out 778 batters while giving up 760 base hits. Bassitt (career record: 55-39) has a 3.55 earned run average and allows 8.0 hits per nine innings. He has a WHIP of 1.200, a FIP of 3.9, and has allowed a total of 336 earned runs. He has faced 3,579 hitters in his MLB career and has a strikeout to walk ratio of 2.95.

Look for Snell to get rattled early and give up some key runs after which a war of attrition will commence. Toronto pulls out the win in a low scoring affair.

Take Toronto (-125) and under 9 runs for your parlay.

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