Jaelen Phillips rookie of the year odds

NFL Defensive Player of the Year Odds and Picks

10 July, 2023

Who will win Defensive Player of the Year in the NFL? Here are 3 early wagers to think about

While defense wins championships, offense wins games. This old saying may not hold true in the Patrick Mahomes era, but it still applies to every team that hopes to unseat the Chiefs.

The Philadelphia Eagles and Cincinnati Bengals, the two teams that came the closest, both had strong defensive units that contributed significantly to their postseason success. The 2022 Defensive Player of the Year, Nick Bosa, led the San Francisco 49ers’ pass rush, which made them a popular Super Bowl pick. The edge rusher for the 49ers won the prize after recording 18.5 sacks for the best scoring defense in the league.

That caliber of elite performance is required to defeat a field that includes superstars like Micah Parsons, T.J. Watt, and Aaron Donald. There are a few key points to keep in mind as you wager on the award this season. Just because Nick Bosa won last year doesn’t mean you should disregard him. Voter fatigue is not a real issue. Between the years of 2012 and 2020, J.J. Watt and Aaron Donald each won three out of four seasons. You should also focus on pass rushers. In the past nine years, only cornerback Stephon Gilmore has not been a pass rusher to win the award (2019), and over the previous two years, all votes have gone to quarterback-rushers. It’s no accident that 14 of the first 15 players listed on BetUS‘s odds board are pass rushers.

I created three wagers with odds ranging from +700 to +4000 so that we could attack the market from various vantage points. Similar to how I did last week, I approached the market for offensive player of the year. To check whether the odds are in line with the degree of risk, it’s a good exercise to help you visualize the value of each grouping. Remember that this is a highly competitive prize only given to the best players at their position. We will therefore begin with the wager with the shortest odds and progress to the long shot.

Player of the Year in Defense

Best Bet: +700 Myles Garrett

From the day he joined the NFL in 2017, Myles Garrett has been a danger. He has played through some erratic years in Cleveland, but he has been incredibly consistent. In each of the previous five years, the former first overall pick has recorded double-digit sack totals.

He finished the 2017–2018 season with 16 sacks for the second consecutive year, 2.5 fewer than 2022 DPOY Nick Bosa. The issue with Garrett’s argument for the award has always been more about his team’s performance than his own. Last season, the Browns defense underperformed, finishing 25th on Pro Football Focus. Cleveland’s defense doesn’t have to match that of the 2022 49ers for Garrett to have a chance to win, but it must significantly improve.

With the appointment of former Eagles defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz, I anticipate seeing it. With newly acquired defensive end Za’Darius Smith bookending the other side of the pass rush, Garrett had some significant assistance on the defensive line. If Watson’s attack becomes more coherent in his second season with the team, the Browns defense should also play less. All these factors point to Garrett playing in a much better environment than last season, giving him every opportunity to push into the 18-20 sack range, and earn him strong consideration for the award.

+2000 Haason Reddick

The Philadelphia Eagles were the team who sacked the quarterback the most in 2022. Reddick, who joined the team from the Carolina Panthers, was the ideal addition to a unit that finished first in pass EPA while terrorizing opposing offenses with 70 sacks. Reddick was responsible for 19.5 sacks when combining his regular season (16) and postseason (3.5) tallies, and he was noticeably more comfortable in his new home as the season progressed. Under the new defensive coordinator Sean Desai, I see no reason why he won’t keep moving in the same direction.

The Eagles have both their starting cornerbacks returning, and added Georgia DT Jalen Carter in the draft to replace the loss of Javon Hargrave. Reddick should feast again on the NFC East, which has at least two teams (New York Giants and Washington Commanders) that finished in the bottom seven of the league in sacks allowed per dropback.

Reddick checks all the boxes for the award. He has proven production on a contending team in a major market. Philadelphia has the shortest odds among all NFL teams to win their conference (+260), and only four teams have more prime-time games scheduled than Philly. Reddick should get plenty of opportunities to make his case in the national spotlight. That’s all you can ask for at 25 to 1.

Jaelen Phillips +5000

I was surprised how appealing some of the players were in this range of the odds board. Whether any of these hidden gems will hit as long shots is a more difficult question, but I think the Dolphins’ third-year pass rusher is certainly worth a look.

Phillips made a massive leap in his second year in the league. He ended with the fifth-highest pass rush grade according to PFF, and his pass rush victory % increased from 11.2 to 17.6. Only Myles Garrett, Micah Parsons, Nick Bosa and Haason Reddick graded out better than the Dolphins edge rusher. That’s pretty elite company for your second season in the league.

We could be looking at the perfect storm where everything lines up for a massive breakout under the tutelage of Vic Fangio, one of the league’s most respected defensive coordinators. The Dolphins secondary got a boost with Jalen Ramsey, and Miami has the talent to garner a lot of attention in 2023. I may be a year too soon, but I’d rather take a shot now than be a year too late.

Full List of Odds from BetUS.com

5001 Micah Parsons +600
5002 T.J. Watt +700
5003 Myles Garrett +700
5004 Nick Bosa +1000
5005 Maxx Crosby +1400
5006 Ahmad Gardner +1600
5007 Aaron Donald +2000
5008 Haason Reddick +2000
5009 Brian Burns +2500
5010 Chris Jones +2500
5011 Roquan Smith +3300
5012 Rashan Gary +3300
5013 Aidan Hutchinson +2800
5014 Joey Bosa +4000
5015 Matthew Judon +4000
5016 Quinnen Williams +3000
5017 Patrick Surtain II +4000
5018 Von Miller +5000
5019 Chase Young +5000
5020 Kayvon Thibodeaux +5000
5021 Fred Warner +5000
5022 Derwin James +6000
5023 Trey Hendrickson +6000
5024 Travon Walker +6000
5025 Bobby Wagner +10000
5026 Bradley Chubb +6000
5027 Danielle Hunter +10000
5028 Shaquille Leonard +10000
5029 Jalen Ramsey +10000
5030 Darius Slay Jr. +10000
5031 Minkah Fitzpatrick +10000
5032 ZaDarius Smith +10000
5033 Jaycee Horn +10000
5034 A.J. Terrell +10000
5035 Jaire Alexander +10000
5036 Devin White +10000
5037 George Karlaftis +12500
5038 Jack Jones +12500
5039 Jaelen Phillips +5000
5040 Jeffrey Simmons +12500
5041 Sam Hubbard +12500
5042 Jalen Pitre +15000
5043 Harold Landry +15000
5044 Josh Allen +15000
5045 Josh Uche +15000
5046 Lavonte David +15000
5047 Nick Bolton +15000
5048 Shaquil Barrett +15000
5049 Talanoa Hufanga +15000
5050 Tariq Woolen +15000
5051 Trevon Diggs +15000
5052 Antoine Winfield Jr +15000
5053 Arik Armstead +15000
5054 Kevin Byard +15000
5055 Jeremy Chinn +15000
5056 Demarcus Lawrence +15000
5057 C.J.Mosley +15000
5058 Derek Stingley +15000
5059 J.C. Jackson +15000
5060 Jamal Adams +15000

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