Kansas City Chiefs V. Las Vegas Raiders Betting Preview And Predictions
07 October, 2022
It’s an AFC West showdown on Monday Night Football as red-hot Mahomes and the Chiefs (3-1) play host to the Raiders (1-3). The Chiefs are coming off of an impressive 41-31 road win over the Tampa Bay Bucs, while Las Vegas is fresh off of their first win of the season, a 32-23 win at home over the struggling Broncos. Monday night’s game is set for 8:15 PM EST at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City.
Kansas City Chiefs v. Las Vegas Raiders Quick Hits
KC’s Offense is putting up numbers
With 16 touchdowns scored, with 11 of them coming through the air, Kansas City ranks second in the league in both team touchdowns and passing touchdowns.
Chiefs have been unstoppable at home
Kansas City is currently riding a seven regular season game winning streak at home dating back to November of last season.
Both Defenses Struggle against the pass
Kansas City has allowed 10 passing touchdowns heading into Week 5, tied for most in the NFL. Both Kansas City and Las Vegas are giving up 1,000+ yards through the air after four games, ranking both passing defenses in the bottom 33% in the league.
Mahomes loves playing the Raiders
The Raiders have been one of Mahomes’ favorite opponents in his career, as the Chiefs star has put up 2,546 yards and 22 touchdowns in just eight games against the Raiders.
Kansas City Chiefs v. Las Vegas Raiders Moneyline Play : Chiefs (-340)
Kansas City enter the matchup as significant (-340) favorites, with the Raiders coming in at (+270) dogs, and for good reason. The Chiefs are 7-1 against the Raiders with Mahomes at quarterback, and they’ve become accustomed to putting up massive score lines on their in-division rivals. Kansas City is averaging 41.3 points scored in their last three meetings with the Raiders, going 3-0 and beating Las Vegas by an average margin of 23.3 points over that span of matchups.
As for the Raiders, they have yet to prove that they have what it takes to beat Kansas City at this point in the season. Derek Carr and the Las Vegas offense has been far from consistent, with Carr completing just 61% of his passes so far this year (23rd in NFL). While they have some weapons that are bound to put up points, this Raiders team won’t have the firepower to keep up with Mahomes and the Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium. While there might not be much value in this Chiefs moneyline play by itself, it should be a reliable parlay piece.
Kansas City Chiefs v. Las Vegas Raiders Over/Under Play : Over 51 (-130)
It’s very hard to bet on the under anytime the Chiefs are playing, but with the Over/Under set at 51.5 points (-115), this matchup with the Raiders is ideal for Over bettors. This will be the first time that defensive coordinator Patrick Graham will have the task of scheming against Mahomes for the Raiders, and slowing him down will be a challenging task. Typically a coordinator who prefers a 3-4 defense, Graham’s 4-3 defense in Las Vegas will have problems against Mahomes and the balanced attack of KC.
While the Chiefs are likely to give you 30+ of the 51 total points we’re looking for in this one, the Raiders are capable of putting some points on the board themselves. While they aren’t the most reliable offense so far this year, the Raiders have a number of threats that can produce at any time, especially against this Chiefs defense. Kansas City has allowed 330+ passing yard performances twice already this season, and Carr could be the third if he is on his game Monday Night. Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow have both had big games against KC in the past, with Renfrow catching 13 passes for 117 yards and a touchdown just last year. Renfrow’s status for this game is still up in the air, but Devonte Adams is healthy, and will definitely have an impact on this one for his Raiders.
Shave off half a point just to be safe, but the Over 51 points is the play in this one. Mahomes looked to really have found his groove last Sunday night in Tampa, and Monday night represents another big stage for the superstar to shine. Expect the Chiefs to hit chunk play after chunk play, and to finish drives with touchdowns rather than field goals. Mahomes and company have been clinical when it comes to getting 6 points when they get into the redzone, with KC ranking 4th in the league for red zone touchdown scoring (73.68%).
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Kansas City Chiefs v. Las Vegas Raiders – Best Player Prop Bets
3. Patrick Mahomes – Over 274.5 Passing Yards (-115)
It’s scary to think about, but this Chiefs offense has yet to hit its top gear. The two biggest new additions to the receiving corps this season, Marquez Valdes-Scantling and JuJu Smith Schuster, are still settling in, and will be more comfortable in that KC offense every week. Expect both to play a significant factor in this one as Mahomes will look to spread the ball around on Monday Night against an opponent that he is extremely confident playing against, easily eclipsing that 274.5 yard mark through the air.
2. Josh Jacobs – Under 60.5 Rushing Yards (-120)
Despite his huge output in Week 4, Jacobs is set to have a slow day at the office against the Chiefs. KC has the stingiest rush defense in the league, allowing just 263 yards on the ground so far this season, ranking them first in the NFL in that category. There is also a good chance that the Raiders will be trailing for large parts of this game, which will force Las Vegas to stray from the run game and rely on Carr and the air attack. Last week, Kansas City got out to an early lead and absolutely erased Leonard Fournette from the game, holding him to -3 rushing yards on just three carries.
1. Patrick Mahomes – Over 2.5 Passing Touchdowns (+140)
Look for Mahomes to follow up his three touchdown performance last week with another hat trick of TDs Monday night. Despite the big names on both defensive ends, the Raiders have recorded just 5 sacks all season, and their pass rush has shown the potential to go missing throughout games this season. Mahomes will take advantage of this, and will have the time and space to pick apart a sketchy Raiders secondary. Bet Now at top rated sportsbooks