29 May, 2023
This has been discussed frequently: Low-scoring games 7 are common. A total of 195.6 points have been scored in the previous 16 Game 7s. This playoffs, the Celtics have already played one Game 7, and the final score was 200 points. Even without taking into account their current injury situation, the Heat are a poorer offensive club than the Sixers were. Take Game 7 unders if you learn nothing else from the predictions we make every postseason. The Choice: Under 203
Game 7s may be low in scoring, but are they close? In the last two seasons, there have been five of them. At least 20 points separated the winners of the other four. a fifth? A season ago, the Heat-Celtics game came down to a single Jimmy Butler 3-pointer. On Saturday, Miami and Boston played a game that was nearly a carbon copy of that one. In the fourth quarter, Boston held a sizable lead. Miami fired right back. This time by Duncan Robinson, the Heat missed a 3-point attempt that could have changed the result. Derrick White’s stunning game-winning putback for the Celtics gave Miami its heartbreak. But remember that the Celtics won Games 4 and 5 by double digits. Miami made twice as many 3-pointers, even though the Celtics may have needed a miracle to win Game 6. There is now a lot of evidence that the Celtics have the Heat figured out. Asking Miami to recover from their most recent loss sounds a little ambitious. The Celtics will likely handle business at home. Prediction: Celtics -7.5
In Game 6, Butler made five of 21 field goal attempts, but still scored 24 points. That is the power of being able to regularly cross the finish line. Butler may have been battling with a bothersome ailment, but 5-of-21 isn’t a reasonable expectation for him going forward. Butler appeared at least exhausted for the whole of Game 6. If he hits even half of his field goal attempts, which is realistic given his raw volume, he easily surpasses his point total at the foul line. Miami needs his offensive production badly, and the club as a whole is exhausted now that Erik Spoelstra has virtually reduced the rotation to seven. The only way for Miami to win right now is if Butler has a great night. We can expect him to at least take a lot of shots, regardless of whether or not he delivers. Butler Over 28.5 Points is the prediction.