Alabama vs Auburn Free Pick

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by Sportsbook Advisor - 11/24/2020 8:16 PM Share
For residents of Alabama this is the game of the year. Their two major teams square off for state bragging rights. But unlike many years past, this one is expected to be a blowout. That's because Alabama is ranked #1 in the country and are 24.5 point favorites. So, will the Tide win and cover this enormous spread?

Auburn Tigers

The Tigers are rated #22 in the country despite having two losses. They score 28 PPG on offense and allow 22 PPG. These are not the most impressive numbers. They are on a three game win streak which saw them beat Ole' Miss, Missouri and Tennessee. But are they ready and capable of beating the top team in the land?

Alabama Crimson Tide

The Tide are rolling again. This is a spot that Nick Saban and Bama fans are used to being in. They are 7-0 this year. They average 49 PPG on offense and allow just 19 PPG. They dominate all facets of the ball. They pass for 366 YPG and rush for another 182 YPG.

Head to Head

Bama has to advantage head to head winning 6 of their last 10 meet-ups. The spread in those games went 5-5 for both teams. Last year the Tigers were able to beat the Tide in a high scoring thriller.

Trends

- Alabama is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
- Alabama is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home
- Alabama is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Auburn
- Alabama is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Auburn
In recent years, Alabama has been favored in every game between these two, sometimes by as little as just 3.5 points. Like in 2010 when Cam Newton and the Tigers defeated them 28-27.

Two years later, in 2012, Alabama was favored by 34 points. It was a game where the Tide went on to crush Auburn 49-0.

Pick

Auburn is talented enough to give Alabama some trouble. The Tigers are not a great team but they are good enough to make it hard for Bama to cruise on by. If the Tigers can keep Alabama below their 49 point average and at the same time score their customary 28-ish points, they will easily get the cover. I can see this thing landing on a score of something like 40-24. But if you are feeling really froggy, take the Auburn moneyline (+1300). Hey, much stranger things have happened.





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