NFL Free Pick | Colts @ Bills

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by Americas Bookie - 1/7/2021 12:53 AM Share

Is there a hotter team in the NFL than the Buffalo Bills? The Bills have been good to sports bettors too with a league-best 11-5 record against the spread.

Buffalo will host a playoff game for the first time since 1996 and are chasing their first playoff victory since 1995. Indianapolis qualified for the postseason by virtue of the Bills win over Miami in Week 17. The Colts have been just good enough to beat the bad and mediocre teams on their schedule.

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Are they good enough to pull the upset in Buffalo? That really shouldn't be a concern for bettors. There's a better play here.

Game: Indianapolis Colts (11-5, 8-8 ATS) at Buffalo Bills (13-3, 11-5 ATS)

When : 1:05 PM ET, Saturday, January 9, 2021

Where : Bills Stadium, Orchard Park, New York

Current Line : BUF -7

Total : 51

TV Coverage : CBS

Covering the Spread

Yes, Buffalo is 8-0 ATS in its last eight games. After a short midseason slump where Buffalo lost two straight (Kansas City, Tennessee), the Bills regrouped and have been on fire since. They won their last six straight and nine of their last ten.

The only loss came on a Hail Mary by Arizona QB Kyler Murray as time expired in a 32-30 loss to the Cardinals.

In those final six games, Buffalo has averaged 38.2 points per game. Bills QB Josh Allen has three 300-yard-plus passing games in those six games. In two of the games, Allen threw for four touchdowns.

It should be noted that Buffalo has covered the spread in its last eight games by an average of 14.8 points. Still, there is a better play in this wild card round matchup.

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Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde

The Colts are an interesting team. At times, they appear to be one of the best teams in the league. Take their 34-31 victory over Green Bay as an example. Then, there are times when Indy appears inept. The second half of their loss to Pittsburgh is a great example of that.

The Colts gave up three touchdown passes to Ben Roethlisberger as the Steelers rallied to win 28-24. That half of football is evidence of the Colts biggest weakness - pass defense.

Indy ranks No. 2 in the NFL against the run allowing just 90.3 rushing yards per game. Where the Colts are suspect is against the pass where they rank 20th in the league. The passing game just happens to be the strength of the Bills offense.

Allen threw for 4,544 yards and 37 touchdowns. Teammate Stefon Diggs led the NFL in receptions with 127 and receiving yards with 1,535.

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Colts @ Bills Free Pick

Despite their shortcomings on defense, the Colts are known for one thing - fast starts. Indy averages 10.3 points in the first quarter and scores 28.2 points per game (9th overall). The Colts have scored at least 24 points in each of their last eight games.

You can see where this is headed. The better play is on the Over. The Over has hit in eight of Indianapolis's last 12 games and 11 of Buffalo's last 16.

Colts @ Bills Free Pick: OVER 51


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