Conference Road Well Traveled

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by - 11/18/2008 3:39 PM Share

This week's college system is one that took me by surprise. When I handicap games, I try and look for specific situations where I think a team will either rise or fall. In this particular set, I envisioned a team emotionally spent and on the verge of an upset loss. Not to my surprise, after some intensive research, the exact opposite came to be true.

Let me set the stage for you. In this scenario, we have a conference road favorite of -9' or more coming off a SU and ATS conference road favorite victory. Without saying another word, the knee-jerk would be to fade that piece of road chalk thinking an encore performance, especially as a guest, wouldn't be possible. That couldn't be further from the truth. In fact, if our conference road favorite is matched up against a greater than .200 foe that checks in off a straight up loss, this situation boasts an impressive 35-21 ATS record for 62.5 percent.

Common sense would lead us to believe that this road favorite would struggle. Thankfully, my powerful college database dismisses that way of thinking and puts us on the correct side.

Like all of my systems, there are certain tighteners that apply that make stronger sets. This one is no different. First, if we take all of the "Class A" teams out of the original 35-21 ATS system - those with a won/loss percentage greater than .900 - this technical situation improves to a sparkling 29-14 ATS for 67.4 percent. That actually makes perfect sense. Teams that carry a won/loss percentage greater than .900 are most likely overpriced. In this situation, we are able to remove a 6-7 ATS record by eliminating those teams.

If we take our 29-14 ATS set and bring their foe in off a straight up loss of 31 points or less, this college system zips to a powerful 26-8 ATS for 76.4 percent. After researching so many different technical situations, I've discovered that it's usually a good thing to dismiss teams that enter off really big losses. Those teams tend to try a little harder coming off an embarrassing performance. Plus, the linemaker has probably over compensated for these teams coming off the blowout loss.

This weekend, there is one team that fits the general system and both tighteners - OHIO STATE! The Buckeyes looked fantastic in their win and cover at Northwestern last Saturday and travel to Illinois to take on an Illini team that lost by six in their last game versus Western Michigan!

Good luck with the Buckeyes and be sure to check back next week for another powerful system.

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