Free College Basketball Pick

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by - 1/15/2009 4:56 PM Share
Sport: College Basketball
Game: Fairfield at St. Peter's
Date/Time: 1/15/2009 7:00PM EST
Pick: Fairfield

If not for New Jersey Tech and Monmouth, St. Peter's would be the worst Division I team in the state of New Jersey. The Peacocks are 5-11 on the season but even that is loftier than it really is. They have played a schedule ranked 327th in the nation so producing 11 losses against a slate as soft as that is very discouraging. One of the win happened to come against that 0-17 NJ Tech team while other wins include 246th Long Island University, 265th Canisius and 335th Fairleigh Dickinson. The most recent win was a two-point victory over Loyola-Maryland who is ranked 209th which is the best win. Fairfield is 11-6 on the season including 4-2 in the MAAC as it trails Siena by two games and Rider and Niagara by a half-game.

The Stags are hosting Siena on Saturday and while that could be considered a lookahead, it won't mean a whole lot if they come out flat on Thursday and go into that big matchup three games down. A loss there means four games back and a two-game sweep at the hands of the Saints and that means the regular season title is all but gone. These are the games they need to take care of first and foremost. Four of Fairfield's losses this season have come against Memphis, Missouri, Virginia Tech and Connecticut who are a combined 52-12 on the season. Fairfield has edges pretty much across the board here in statistical numbers. The most glaring advantage is in assist/turnover ratio where the Stags have a ratio of 1.02. Anything over the breakeven point is solid considering only 131 of 347 teams in Division I can make that claim. On the other side, the Peacocks have a horrendous ratio of 0.60 which is 332nd in the country.

Making that even worse is the fact that the schedule has been one of the worst in the country as well as mentioned earlier. Both teams are shooting an identical 65.8 percent from the free throw line but recent form gives the edge again to Fairfield. It is shooting 76.6 percent over its last five games while St. Peter's is making just 64.4 percent of its attempts over that same span. The Stags have a 102.3 offensive efficiency rating which is good for third in the MAAC ands a decent 132nd in the country. St. Peter's meanwhile is horrible on the offensive end, which is due a lot to the turnovers as mentioned, and its rating is only 85.9 which is 2nd to last in the conference and 328th in all of Division I.

The Peacocks are just 4-15 ATS in the second half of the season in home games against teams with a winning record. They are also 0-7 ATS in their last seven games when playing as a home underdog between 6.5 and 12 points. Fairfield has won seven straight meetings in this series including a home win by 20 points back in December in the conference opener for both teams. That means revenge for the Peacocks but that means little considering they are 2-11 ATS in home revenge games when they scored fewer than 60 points in the first meeting. The Stags roll again on Thursday. 3* Fairfield Stags

Fargo easily won with Western Michigan Wednesday and while Illinois St. won, it missed the cover by four points. It is now PAYBACK time and Fargo does it with a COLOSSAL release! Last week he released his A-10 Game of the Week (Duquesne 1/10) and it WON going away! Now it is the A-10 **Game of the Month**! 14-9 (60.9%) run EXTENDED! You know what to do with this one!

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