Free NFL Pick Detroit at Miami

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by - 12/26/2010 12:10 PM Share

Free NFL Pick


Detroit at Miami


Sunday, December 26th


1:00 PM ET on FOX

The Detroit Lions (4-10) travel to the other side of Florida to take on the Miami Dolphins (7-7) after a 23-20 OT victory at Tampa Bay. The Dolphins come off a disappointing 17-14 loss against Buffalo just one week after a win over the then 9-3 Jets. The loss took the Dolphins out of the playoff picture.

Miami is favored by 3.5 points.

Detroit fans don't have much to complain about. With 2 wins last season, the Lions could only go up - and that's what they have done. With a 4-10 record, and some close battles, the Detroit Lions have made significant improvements. There will be some questions this week about the QB situation. Coach Jim Schwarz will have to decide between Drew Stanton (who separated his left non-throwing shoulder in their last game) or Shaun Hill who has started 8 times since replacing Matthew Stafford. Hill is recovering from a finger injury suffered on Thanksgiving. Drew Stanton has led the Lions to their first 2-game winning streak in three years. Their win against Tampa Bay was their first road victory since 2007.

The Dolphins' .500 record has been produced by on/off wins all season long. The only thing you can really count on this year is that the Dolphins will win just about every other game. With that logic, Miami is due for a win at home against Detroit. The only trouble is, the Dolphins are 1-6 at home. QB Chad Henne is 266 for 430 with 14 TD throws and 16 interceptions. Statistically, The Dolphins look to have the edge in this game. Their struggles at home paired up with one of the best teams ATS make this one tougher than it looks.

Detroit Betting Trends:


Detroit is 4-16 SU in its last 20 games

The total has gone OVER in 8 of Detroit''s last 11 games

Detroit is 1-24 SU in its last 25 games on the road

Detroit is 5-8-2 ATS in its last 15 games on the road

Detroit is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Miami

The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Detroit''s last 6 games when playing Miami

Detroit is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Miami

Miami Betting Trends:


The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami''s last 5 games

Miami is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games at home

The total has gone OVER in 10 of Miami''s last 15 games at home

Miami is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games at home

The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami''s last 6 games when playing Detroit

Miami is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Detroit

Betting Trends by Bodog.com

Pick: Miami -3.5


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