NBA Betting Preview: Mavericks at Heat

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by - 12/20/2010 2:50 PM Share


Tip-off: Monday, 7:30 p.m. EDT

Line: Miami -6.5, Total: 190.5

On Nov 27, the Mavericks were the last team to beat the Heat 106-95, and they'd love to be the NBA team to snap Miami's 12-game win streak. Dallas has won its past four visits to Miami, since losing to the Heat in the 2006 NBA Finals, but bettors know that getting a win tonight night won't be easy.

The Heat are doing much better now, averaging 101.9 points while allowing 86.7 points (+15.2 PPG margin) during the win streak. Miami has been astounding at home with a 12-3 mark, but is only 5-9-1 ATS. The Big Three of Wade, Bosh, and James are averaging over 66 points per contest, led by James' 24.5 PPG. Each of them scored more than 20 in the last meeting against Dallas, but they'll need more players to drop points as the next highest scorer only had nine (James Jones).

The Miami Heat rallied to a 95-94 win in Washington Saturday night, led by James with 32 points, six assists, and seven boards. The Heat had a hard time against the Wizards defense, shooting 43.1% from the floor, committing 17 turnovers, and getting outscored 38-24 in the paint.

On the other hand, the Dallas Mavericks travel down South and leave home for the first time since visiting Utah on Dec. 3 to embark on a tough three-game road trip. Dallas has been phenomenal in away games this 2010 NBA season with an 8-1 mark (SU and ATS), losing only to the Hornets and failing to cover the spread against the Kings.

The Mavs have won two NBA games in a row after losing to the Bucks 103-99 on Dec. 13 to snap a 12-game win streak of their own. Dallas took a 106-91 win over Phoenix Friday night, after Steve Nash left in the first quarter from a Tyson Chandler elbow to the head and didn't return. The easy win allowed head coach Rick Carlisle the opportunity to rest his starters, with no one playing more than Dirk Nowitzki's 29 minutes. Nowitzki has played well in his last 11 trips to Miami, averaging 26.6 points.

The Mavericks are scoring 101.6 PPG in away games this NBA season while holding opponents to 94.2 PPG. The Heat, who hold opponents to a league-best 91.2 PPG, are also averaging over 100 each contest (101.0 PPG). Both basketball teams will have to do their very best tonight, but with the way the Heat have been playing they're looking good to win and snap the Mavs' four-game win streak in South Beach. However, the Mavericks are going to go for it which is why many online ports betting fans pick Dallas to cover the spread.

Dallas is 11-5 ATS against Miami since 1996, and oddsmakers also pick Dallas to cover the NBA point spread:

Play On - Underdogs (DALLAS) - after having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 games, a top-level team (>= 75%) playing a good team (60% to 75%). (88-44 since 1996.) (66.7%, +39.6 units. Rating = 3*).

DALLAS is 20-9 ATS (69.0%, +10.1 Units) in road games after playing a home game over the last 2 seasons. The average score was DALLAS 101.4, OPPONENT 97.6 - (Rating = 1*).

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