Major Betting Turnaround in GMAC Bowl

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by - 1/6/2009 5:34 PM Share

This almost was the fourth matchup of conference champions during the bowl season, but Tulsa and Ball State lost in the championship games. For each team, this is a redemption game, wanting to prove they were as good as they played during the regular year and finish on a positive note. This contest should help Ball State 12-1 (8-3-1 ATS), trying to win a bowl for the first time after four failures. The Cardinals have covered 23 of last 34 games. Tulsa (10-3, 7-5-1 ATS) limited East Carolina to just 278 yards, but the seven turnovers cost them the C-USA title. The Golden Hurricane is just 2-9 ATS in road games after the first month of the season the last couple of years and will be seeking to improve on 6-9 and 4-2 ATS bowl record.

Why to Watch and Wager

There should be no shortage of points and oddsmakers are backing up that point with a total of 75. Ball State quarterback Nate Davis was the star of stars in the MAC this season, passing for 26 touchdowns and 3,446 yards, leading an offense that averaged 459.4 yards per game and among the best in the country in throwing for 9.2 yards per attempt. Ball State is 7-2 ATS off a loss and 16-5 against the spread versus teams with winning records.

As good as the Ball State offense has been, they look like a mid-level D-2 team compared to Tulsa. The Golden Hurricane was second in the country in total offense with 565 yards per game. This is not a one dimensional offense either, rushing for 254.8 yards per game, which compliments David Johnson pass attack that averaged 310.2 YPG in constant hurry-up mode. Tulsa has excellent wide receivers that were part of countless big plays with 10.2 yards gained per pass attempt.

The Golden Hurricane is just 3-8 ATS against teams with winning records, in part because their defense is ordinary, even by C-USA standards in allowing 29.1 points per game. Conversely, Ball State surrendered 18.6 PPG against teams with similar power ratings; however the Cardinals will be without their head coach of six seasons Brady Hoke, who moved west to San Diego State.

Bettors of the GMAC bowl are ignoring the negatives about Tulsa and moved them 2.5-point underdogs to 2.5-point favorites at Bookmaker,com. Ball State 7-2 ATS as an underdog. GMAC favorites have won and covered last six encounters, with average margin of victory 30 points. Line - Tulsa -2.5, 75
StatFox Power Line - Tulsa by 2
StatFox Matt- Tulsa and UNDER

By: Doug Upstone - StatFox

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