Late night NBA-TV special

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by - 12/26/2008 6:07 PM Share

"1 UNIT" NBA PERCENTAGE TOTAL (Celtics at Warriors OVER 211' in a 10:35 eastern tipoff broadcast on NBA-TV): As predicted yesterday on the premium service, Boston played way below the total against the Lakers in the highly anticipated NBA Finals rematch. I mentioned in the analysis that the Lakers in the offseason had worked hard improving their defensive effciency and it certainly showed yesterday as they snapped Boston's massive 19-game winning streak. But the Celtics are in a completely different scenario this evening against an opponent who plays up-tempo. Since Boston is in an unrested situation, it would be hard to imagine them having the same defensive intensity as yesterday, and the oddsmakers appear to agree. The last time Boston faced Golden State was last month in Beantown when the final score (119-111) was enormous. The last time these two teams hooked up out west in Oakland, the final score (119-117) also reflected a race horse battle.

The Warriors come into tonight's battle with the league's WORST scoring defense which is giving up on average 111 points per contest. But there is no question that Don Nelson's very young crew can still light up the scoreboard offensively to the tune of 105 points per contest. Prior to yesterday's marquee battle, the Boston offense had been off the charts with a three-game average of 120 points per contest. My database research indicates that this is a very high percentage wager, despite the lofty posted total. Dating all the way back to 1996, Boston has gone a staggering 27-10 OVER/ROAD when the posted spot has been 210+ points, so do not worry about this lofty spot. But the real big story surrounds Golden State who is 7-0 OVER/HOME so far this campaign when revening a loss versus an opponent. Do I hear 8-0 OVER anyone?!


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Tony George