Early Bowl Blunder - NCAA Football Bowl Pick

Back to Article Listing
by - 12/19/2008 5:50 PM Share

They say momentum can be a good thing. That's not always true when it comes to handicapping college bowl games. Take a look at the following technical situation:

Since 1980, in bowl games played on New Year's Eve or earlier, non-revenging neutral favorites are a dismal 45-71 ATS provided they won their last game by 10 points or more and tackle an opponent that is NOT undefeated. The knee-jerk reaction would be to take that "bowler" especially off that solid victory. That's exactly what you DON'T want to do. This year, there are four bowl teams locked into this "play against" situation: Troy, California, Rutgers and Rice. (Even though Rice is playing this bowl game in Houston, the Owls are NOT running on their home field. The Texas Bowl will be played at Reliant Stadium. Hawaii is the only bowl team this year that is playing in its actual stadium.)

There are a couple of tighteners to this system that work really well. First, if our pre-January 1st bowl favorite is matched up against an opponent that owns a won/loss percentage greater than .700, this angle dips to a disturbing 13-34 ATS! There is one piece of chalk that fit this special parameter: Rice. Second, if our "play against" favorite won 17 (or less) of its last 22 games, you can take a 4-3 ATS mark out bringing this situation to a shocking 9-31 ATS. The Owls apply.

Good luck with Western Michigan and be sure to check back next Wednesday for my awesome NFL Last Home Game system!


Back to Article Listing