NBA Thanksgiving Weekend Power Trends

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by Sportsbook Advisor - 11/27/2008 10:30 AM Share

Football isn't the only thing to feast on this weekend. There is a ton of college & pro basketball as well. Besides the traditional Thursday night doubleheader on TNT, there are 11 games scheduled on both Friday and Saturday in the NBA, as well as five more on Sunday. Read on as we break down some of the top action and offer up some of the Top StatFox Power Trends for you to consider.

The Thanksgiving holiday isn't exactly famous for NBA basketball, but it does land on Thursday, and that of course means TNT doubleheader action. This week's two-pack offers Orlando and Washington followed by New Orleans and Denver. The Wizards have been awful in the early going, and it took 11 losses in their first 12 games for the franchise to relieve head coach Eddie Jordan of his duties. We'll see if new interim coach Ed Tapscott has any better luck when his team welcomes Southeast Division leading Orlando to town. Keep in mind that Washington has been a horrible home underdog, going 58-88 ATS since '96. In the nightcap, New Orleans and Denver meet for the first time this season. The Nuggets, as usual, have fared well on the homecourt in '08, going 4-1 SU & 3-1-1 ATS in their first five as hosts.

The Friday board features several divisional conflicts, plus ESPN's doubleheader. In a 7:35 PM ET tip-off, Philadelphia visits Boston. The Celtics are off to a fantastic start again and are looking to extend a 14-3 ATS run vs. division opponents. The 76ers are struggling to maintain consistency but have at times shown themselves worthy of their high preseason expectations. On ESPN, the first game in the twin bill pits Miami and Phoenix. The Heat are much improved from a year ago and the Suns are much different. In fact, if either of these teams is the "slow-down" team now, it is Phoenix. HC Terry Porter's team is actually taking six less field goal attempts per game than Miami. That game will be followed up by Dallas and Los Angeles. The Lakers have won four straight games between these division rivals, including a 106-99 win in Dallas two weeks ago.

On Saturday, Lebron James and the Cavaliers visit Milwaukee to take on a team that has been a thorn in their side. Despite Milwaukee's struggles over the past 2+ seasons, the Bucks have enjoyed some good success against the Cavaliers, winning the last six head-to-head matchups against the spread. The last two meetings in Milwaukee have been outright wins for the Bucks. Why it happened prior to this year is an enigma, but for the new-look Bucks, there is actually a matchup angle that suggests a reason for success against Cleveland, that being the fact that Milwaukee was yielding opponents to just 28.9% 3-point shooting, best in the NBA at press time. The Cavs rely heavily on the 3-point shot, attempting over 19 per game. HC Scott Skiles seems to be getting his defense/hustle message across, making the Bucks a viable betting option more often. Other key games include Boston at Charlotte, and San Antonio visiting Houston.

Finally, the holiday weekend gets wrapped up with five games on Sunday, and all of them are intriguing in some way. In the afternoon, Detroit hosts Portland, and the Pistons have been a very gracious host to the Blazers over the years, going just 4-7 SU & 2-9 ATS in the L11. Chicago will visit Philadelphia hoping for a little brotherly love, and Houston visits Denver. In a pair of evening non-conference games, New Jersey visits Phoenix and Toronto takes on the Lakers in L.A. The Raptors haven't won in Los Angeles vs. Kobe & Co. since 2001, losing by 16.8 PPG.

It should be a great weekend of NBA basketball to supplement your football viewing. Here are some of the Top StatFox Power Trends for you to consider in your wagering...

Thursday, 11/27/2008

(501) ORLANDO vs. (502) WASHINGTON
  • ORLANDO is 23-10 ATS (+12.0 Units) vs. poor teams - outscored by 3+ points/game over L2 seasons. The average score was ORLANDO 104.1, OPPONENT 93.2 - (Rating = 1*)

    (503) NEW ORLEANS vs. (504) DENVER

  • George Karl is 37-17 ATS (+18.3 Units) vs. marginal winning teams (Win Pct. 51%-60%) as coach of DENVER. The average score was Karl 104.9, OPPONENT 101.6 - (Rating = 2*)

    Friday, 11/28/2008

    (721) DALLAS vs. (722) LA LAKERS
  • LA LAKERS are 23-6 ATS (+16.4 Units) vs. up-tempo teams averaging 83 or more shots/game over L2 seasons. The average score was LA LAKERS 114.6, OPPONENT 103.3 - (Rating = 3*)

    (711) MILWAUKEE vs. (712) DETROIT
  • DETROIT is 20-4 UNDER (+15.6 Units) vs. good rebounding teams outrebounding foes by 3+ RPG over L2 seasons. The average score was DETROIT 91.1, OPPONENT 86.6 - (Rating = 3*)

    (709) MIAMI vs. (710) PHOENIX
  • PHOENIX is 16-3 OVER (+12.7 Units) in home games against Southeast division opponents since 1996. The average score was PHOENIX 116.4, OPPONENT 105.3 - (Rating = 2*)

    (715) MEMPHIS vs. (716) SAN ANTONIO
  • Marc Iavaroni is 8-23 ATS (-17.3 Units) vs. teams who are called for 21 or less fouls/game as coach of MEMPHIS. The average score was Iavaroni 97.9, OPPONENT 109 - (Rating = 2*)

    Saturday, 11/29/2008

    (513) SAN ANTONIO vs. (514) HOUSTON
  • HOUSTON is 37-14 ATS (+21.6 Units) vs. poor pressure defensive teams forcing <=14 TOs/game over L2 seasons. The average score was HOUSTON 95.4, OPPONENT 87.5 - (Rating = 3*)

  • HOUSTON is 27-9 UNDER (+17.1 Units) at home revenging a close loss vs opponent of 3PTs or less since 1996. The average score was HOUSTON 91.7, OPPONENT 90.7 - (Rating = 2*)

    (511) OKLAHOMA CITY vs. (512) MEMPHIS
  • MEMPHIS is 26-9 OVER (+16.1 Units) as a home favorite over L3 seasons. The average score was MEMPHIS 108.1, OPPONENT 107.6 - (Rating = 2*)

    Sunday, 11/30/2008

    (705) HOUSTON vs. (706) DENVER
  • HOUSTON is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) as a road underdog of 6 points or less over L2 seasons. The average score was HOUSTON 98.6, OPPONENT 92.1 - (Rating = 2*)

    (703) CHICAGO vs. (704) PHILADELPHIA
  • Maurice Cheeks is 12-31 ATS (-22.1 Units) at home vs. good FT shooting teams (>=76%) as coach of 76ers. The average score was Cheeks 92.6, OPPONENT 95.6 - (Rating = 2*)

    (707) NEW JERSEY vs. (708) PHOENIX
  • Lawrence Frank is 6-19 ATS (-14.9 Units) vs. slow-down teams averaging <=76 FG Atts/game as coach of Nets. The average score was Frank 88.8, OPPONENT 94.2 - (Rating = 2*)


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