Free Pick - Princeton Tigers at Yale Bulldogs

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by - 2/13/2009 9:15 AM Share
Sport: College Basketball
Game: Princeton Tigers at Yale Bulldogs
Date/Time: 2/13/2009 7:00PM EST
Pick: Princeton Tigers
Reason: Yale is favored here because it is at home and it has to be favored. Arguably, the wrong team is laying the number but that is fine and we will take the added value with Princeton who is making a case for coming back to prominence in the Ivy League. The Tigers owned this conference for years but a couple bad years in a row led to a changing of the guard. Now, even though it was somewhat unexpected, they are once again rising to the top. They are 4-0 in the Ivy League which is part of a seven-game winning streak that goes all the way back to the start of January. Included in this run was a huge 20-point victory over Cornell, the preseason conference favorite, last Friday. Even more impressive was that there was no letdown as Princeton came back on Saturday and thumped Columbia so there was no letdown. That makes us even more confident here that the Tigers are focused and looking past no one. This is even more important facing a team that it has been swept by in each of the last four seasons. Yale is 1-3 over its last four games and while the string has been all games on the road, this is not a team to be backing as it lacks a lot of confidence, especially on the offensive end of the floor. The Bulldogs were held to 42, 36 and 54 points in those three losses and now they face the best defensive team in the league. As far as offensive efficiency, Yale is 6th in the eight-team Ivy with a 90.3 efficiency rating which is also 306th in the nation. The Bulldogs are turning the ball over on 24.3 percent of their possessions which is 317th in the country. That has led to an assist/turnover ratio of 0.82 and that drops to a putrid 0.66 ratio over their last five games. Over this five game stretch, the Bulldogs are -0.19 in ratio margin while Princeton is +0.67 in margin over that same span. The Yale number improves at home to +0.11 but the Tigers are still solid on the road with a ratio margin of +0.25. Overall, the Tigers have edges in every category that I look at which are efficiency ratings, power rating, offensive and defensive shooting, both regular and long-range, rebounding margin, free throw shooting and assist/turnover ratio. One can argue the soft schedule of the Tigers has led to this however the Bulldogs have played a schedule ranked 283rd in the nation so they are not far behind. Play against home teams with a winning percentage of between 40 and 49 percent on the season where the line is +3 to -3 and coming off a road loss by three points or less. This situation is 29-6 ATS (82.9 percent) over the last five seasons with the average point differential being +4.7 ppg. Princeton is 6-0 ATS this season after allowing 55 points or fewer and it is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games following a win dating back to last season. Yale meanwhile is no a horrendous run of 3-16 ATS when playing teams that average six or fewer steals per game so playing a non-pressuring defense will not help much here. The public is not taking this Princeton run very serious as it is all over the Bulldogs here but that will be a mistake when Princeton extends its run to eight consecutive wins and gets its revenge following four straight losses to Yale. 3* Princeton Tigers

Fargo bounced back Thursday in CBB as he SWEPT the board with a 2-0 mark with wins on underdogs Notre Dame and Arizona St.! He is RED HOT in college hoops, going on a 20-13 ATS (60.6%) run and an even more impressive 5-2 ATS (71.4%) run with his last seven 8* Reports! Tonight is the #1 Horizon League GAME OF THE MONTH! Do not miss this massive MONSTER Win!

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