LSU vs Vanderbilt Free Basketball Pick

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by Sportsbook Advisor - 3/8/2019 5:44 PM Share
This is an exclusive for Free Picks USA readers. On Saturday at 8:30 PM EST the LSU Tigers face the Vanderbilt Commodores. Both teams aren't really playing for anything in particular. LSU is already most likely going to the dance and is expected to do very well. Vandy is pretty much dunzo.

The point spread was issued today with LSU being favored by 15 points. Its easy to see why they are favored by so many points when you look at the record. LSU is 25-5 and the Commodores are just 9-21. The Tigers are much better than Vandy, but are they 15 points better? Not according to our calculations. Our simulations have LSU at about 11-13 points better than Vandy. We see 15 points as too many.

Vanderbilt is 6-5 ATS on the road. LSU is just 9-9 ATS at home this year. Yes, it is true that Vanderbilt sucks. And LSU is on a win streak. These are facts. And to be honest we were totally ready to take LSU up to -13. But the extra bucket has flipped us. There is slightly more value on Vandy plus the 15 points. That is all.

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